02The full electrification of mobility infrastructure
New players, new solutions, new business models, new markets
As a global driver of green initiatives, many EU states have set ambitious 10-year carbon neutrality targets. The EU has invested heavily in the electrification of mobility by providing extensive support for electric vehicle research and ecosystem operators. It will also impose heavy fines on automotive manufacturers that fail to meet sustainability goals. Everything is in place for a rapid transition.
What will change
As EV roll-out accelerates, a new kind of support infrastructure will be needed. The race will be on for multiple players - including manufacturers, electric companies and digital service providers - to work together to form ecosystems that help establish dominance on this new market.
Emerging technologies to watch
Global energy demand is expected to grow from 18bn kWh to 270bn kWh by 2030, with the growth of electric vehicles a major contributor. Technologies for everything from improved battery life, charging station and home charging, smart grid connection, vehicle design and human-car interaction will continue to evolve.
Opportunities worth taking
Gas stations may decrease in numbers when consumers are be able to charge their vehicles at home, at restaurants, in malls - anywhere connection to the grid is possible. New digital services will connect consumers with charging providers, instantly billing customers wherever charging takes place. Inside vehicles, the new real estate offered by giant entertainment screens could encourage a whole new ecosystem of in-vehicle products and services.
This is where the open-minded, the visionaries, the rebels and disruptors design new digital customer experiences for the world to come. Are you one of us?
Buses are set to become the major large EV, with Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Eindhoven and Luxembourg airports purchasing electric fleets. EV charging networks are already by companies like Vitra and Ionity.
Underground mining loaders and trucks use battery packs and electric motors.
Kalmar (part of Cargotec) aims to offer a fully electric EV equipment portfolio by 2021.
Grid level energy storing gives consumers that chance to become suppliers by compensating demand spikes through connected EV batteries.
Connected vehicles and AI
Deduced ranges and improved charging times will create opportunities for charging infrastructure and services.
Collection and recycling of EV batteries can mitigate the need to import key materials (cobalt, nickel, aluminium and lithium) while creating new jobs and mitigating CO2 emissions.
Why is this relevant
Total energy demand for EVs from 18 bn kwh to 92 bn kwh 2020-2025 (McKinsey), EV market size $667 bn, CAGR 19% while EV units CAGR 28%.
Look at these 2024
Automotive software market $ 50 bn, whatever Tesla is doing as other vehicle manufacturers follow them tightly, ecosystem collaboration & new opportunities from charging to finding and buying local services. Perhaps even sharing your car keys to a friend can go over mobile like a peer-to-peer payment.
Top 18 unicorn sniffing smart money VCs, 1376 investments 2018-2020
EV, electric vehicle 1%, battery 2%, energy 2%
Collaboration between manufacturers will shape the ecosystem and value chains. New digital service opportunities are possible when building on EV & infrastructure data & analytics. Designing for the behavioural and paradigm shift is an opportunity where new service, business and revenue models will already emerge within the near future.
Things to consider
Lithium and cobalt are currently needed to produce batteries. Battery recycling, alternative battery technologies (such as sodium and nickel) and energy efficient, sustainable battery production are some of the major challenges to overcome.
Data and analytics
Data-driven services for things like battery life optimisation, charging and payment creating potential new markets.
This will create new free time for users.
EVs are more costly to manufacture and purchase, which is a challenge when creating a market.
Technologies that will enable the shift
New nanomaterials in electronics
Energy harvesting and storing with efficient electronic materials.
The charging time depends on the battery capacity and the charging power. According to SAE International Level 1 (household 120V AC) is the slowest, Level 2 (upgraded household 240 VAC) in the middle and DC fastcharge,(480V DC or higher) as the fastest.
AI/ML Artificial intelligence (AI)
Computer systems that accomplish goals in some task(s). It is not a single thing; it is a combination of technologies such as machine learning. Machine Learning (ML): toolbox of algorithms and techniques that learn rules from data. Used to implement AI in narrow tasks. Not magic; learns from the data by minimising a cost function. AI can help EV batteries to charge faster.
Lithium-based batteries are largely used in phones & EVs, but alternatives such as sodium, flow & thermal based solutions are likely to rival environmentally damaging lithium and cobalt batteries in the future.
Sustainability integral in business offerings with high carbon footprints, e.g. Compensate
Pressure to set & act on environmental pledges
Companies favouring hybrids or EV’s as leasing car models
By 2050, 68% of world’s population is expected to live in urban areas (2018: 55%)
Sustainability will be a big driver for consumers and public sector like municipalities & state, when making investments
Energy storing innovations
e.g. Tesla Powerwall,Teraloop or sodium-ion batteries, like Broadbit.
EU funds research on sustainable batteries
Climate related natural disasters
e.g. recent bushfires in Australia, floods in Spain, mud floods in Brazil, imagery & measure of melted Greenland, mild Scandinavian winter.
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VP, Emerging Business
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