02Electrification of mobility
New players, new solutions, new business models, new markets
Introduction
Today
As a global driver of green initiatives, many EU states have set ambitious 10-year carbon neutrality targets. The EU has invested heavily in the electrification of mobility by providing extensive support for electric vehicle research and ecosystem operators. It will also impose heavy fines on automotive manufacturers that fail to meet sustainability goals. Everything is in place for a rapid transition.
What will change
As EV roll-out accelerates, a new kind of support infrastructure will be needed. The race will be on for multiple players - including manufacturers, electric companies and digital service providers - to work together to form ecosystems that help establish dominance on this new market.
Emerging technologies to watch
Global energy demand is expected to grow from 18bn kWh to 270bn kWh by 2030, with the growth of electric vehicles a major contributor. Technologies for everything from improved battery life, charging station and home charging, smart grid connection, vehicle design and human-car interaction will continue to evolve.
Opportunities worth taking
Gas stations may decrease in numbers when consumers are be able to charge their vehicles at home, at restaurants, in malls - anywhere connection to the grid is possible. New digital services will connect consumers with charging providers, instantly billing customers wherever charging takes place. Inside vehicles, the new real estate offered by giant entertainment screens could encourage a whole new ecosystem of in-vehicle products and services.
Opportunities
Mobility
Buses are set to become the major large EV, with Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Eindhoven and Luxembourg airports purchasing electric fleets. EV charging networks are already by companies like Vitra and Ionity.
Mining
Underground mining loaders and trucks use battery packs and electric motors.
Ports
Kalmar (part of Cargotec) aims to offer a fully electric EV equipment portfolio by 2021.
Energy supply
Grid level energy storing gives consumers that chance to become suppliers by compensating demand spikes through connected EV batteries.
Connected vehicles and AI
Wider ranges and improved charging times will create opportunities for charging infrastructure and services.
Circular economy
Collection and recycling of EV batteries can mitigate the need to import key materials (cobalt, nickel, aluminium and lithium) while creating new jobs and mitigating CO2 emissions.
Deep-dive into this bet
- Market outlook
- Things to consider
- Start-ups to watch
- Tech enabling the shift
Total market
Total energy demand for EVs from 18 bn kwh to 92 bn kwh 2020-2025 (McKinsey), EV market size $667 bn, CAGR 19% while EV units CAGR 28%.
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Look at these 2024
Methodology: A high-level view gathered from various openly available data sources on market size & compound annual growth rates. To simplify comparison between analysts sources, we’ve removed differences in market details by calculating an estimated average for total market size 2024 and average CAGR for selected time period. This allows us to gain “correct enough estimates”. Unless linked directly to one source, each of our market estimate has included 2-8 sources e.g. WEF, CB Insights, Mordor Intelligence, Markets & Markets, Research & Markets, Grand View Research, PWC, Allied Market Research, McKinsey, Market Watch
Automotive software market $ 50 bn, whatever Tesla is doing as other vehicle manufacturers follow them tightly, ecosystem collaboration & new opportunities from charging to finding and buying local services. Perhaps even sharing your car keys to a friend can go over mobile like a peer-to-peer payment.
Top 18 unicorn sniffing smart money VCs, 1376 investments 2018-2020
Source: Crunchbase Pro, accessed: 03/20, research of company description terms between 01/2018-02/2020, investment types: early stage investments by top 18 unicorn sniffing smart money VCs, n=1376 investments
EV, electric vehicle 1%, battery 2%, energy 2%
Special focus
Collaboration between manufacturers will shape the ecosystem and value chains. New digital service opportunities are possible when building on EV & infrastructure data & analytics. Designing for the behavioural and paradigm shift is an opportunity where new service, business and revenue models will already emerge within the near future.
Rare minerals
Lithium and cobalt are currently needed to produce batteries. Battery recycling, alternative battery technologies (such as sodium and nickel) and energy efficient, sustainable battery production are some of the major challenges to overcome.
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Data and analytics
Data-driven services for things like battery life optimisation, charging and payment creating potential new markets.
Automated charging
This will create new free time for users.
Expense
EVs are more costly to manufacture and purchase, which is a challenge when creating a market.
New nanomaterials in electronics
Energy harvesting and storing with efficient electronic materials.
Electric charging
The charging time depends on the battery capacity and the charging power and are connected to different plug types, use cases and thus infrastructure. The current charge types vary from speed of ~3,5 km/hour to ~128 km/hour.
AI/ML Artificial intelligence (AI)
Computer systems able to perform tasks normally requiring human intelligence by using a combination of Machine Learning (ML) toolbox of algorithms and learning rules from data.
Battery technology
Lithium-based batteries are largely used in phones & EVs, but alternatives such as sodium or flow & thermal based solutions are likely to compete with environmentally damaging battery materials.
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Indicators of change
Environmental
Climate related natural disasters, e.g. fires in Amazon, bushfires in Australia, floods in Spain, mud floods in Brazil, amount of ice melted in Greenland.
Get in touch with our team
Tuğberk Duman
Head of Innovation
+358503266121
tugberk.duman@futurice.com
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